Russia-Ukraine war to end soon?

The prospects of the Russia-Ukraine war ending have brightened after Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday expresssed willingness to resume talks with the US and Ukraine. 

The development came after US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg.

Witkoff travelled to the Russian city after meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as the leaders of Norway and Finland in the Norwegian capital, Oslo, on Monday.

The US special envoy’s visit was to oversee the release of US citizen Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old retired teacher from Michigan, who had been in Russian detention since 2022. 

Hubbard taught English in Japan for 25 years before moving to Cyprus and then to Ukraine. He was living in Izyum in Ukraine with his Ukrainian partner when Russia invaded Ukraine. He was picked up when Russian forces captured Izyum. According to reports, he was labelled a mercenary and a Moscow court conducted a closed trial and sentenced him to six years and 10 months in prison.  

Shortly after the Witkoff-Putin meeting, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov announced Russia’s intention to engage in trilateral discussions to end the protracted war. 

Ushakov said the talks could be held around 10 November in Abu Dhabi, UAE with the focus on “building a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the end of the conflict.”

This is a big, positive development as Russia has so far been ruling out talks as it was confident of winning the war.

However, it doesn’t guarantee a positive outcome. Earlier, top officials from Russia, Ukraine, and the US have held several rounds of talks but the conflict continued. 

Interestingly, the developments come amid widening rift between Kyiv and Washington that worsened after Trump publicly expressed his lack of confidence in the leadership of Zelenskyy, who, according to the US president, should step aside so that the country can get a new president. 

Trump’s outburst came after Ukraine’s relentless attacks on Russian oil refineries reportedly set oil prices on fire, which forced him to do a major climb-down and lift sanctions on Russia to enable Moscow to release adequate quantities of diesel to global markets, including the US. 

Russia’s offer to resume talks, however, hinges on Ukraine’s response. Zelenskyy is widely believed to be trying to prolong the war to keep foreign funds flowing to meet war expenses. Trump has multiple times indicated that he believes Zelenskyy is not interested in doing something to end the war. 

For the record, Zelenskyy has welcomed the offer of trilateral talks but quickly added that any negotiated end to the war would need the approval of Ukraine’s Parliament.

Russian officials claim a resolution is “theoretically possible” but any headway will require Ukraine’s leaders to make “necessary decisions”.